Australia: Grain and Feed Update

Wheat and barley crops have had a great start to the season, with high soil moisture reserves and good rains in the fall. But rainfall has been well below average from July to September 2023. An El Niño weather pattern is ongoing, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a continuation of dry conditions in the coming months. Despite this, wheat production is forecast at 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) and exports at 18.9 MMT, both similar to the previous 10-year average. Barley production is forecast at 10.0 MMT, and exports of 5.5 MMT for MY 2023/24. Sorghum production is forecast at 1.3 MMT, among the lowest level in the last two decades, and exports are forecast at 1.1 MMT, due to strong export demand. Ample irrigation water and drier and warmer conditions rice growing will likely result in a big rice crop of 522,000 metric tons (MT), with imports falling to 200,000 MT and exports rising to 280,000 MT for MY 2023/24.