Brazil: Cotton and Products Update

Post increased the forecast for 2023/24 cotton area planted to 1.67 million hectares (ha), an increase of just under one percent from the 1.66 million ha cotton area estimate for 2022/23. Post’s forecast is based on expectations that despite challenges such as tight margins, Brazilian producers are optimistic about the crop’s prospects compared to corn. Production for 2023/24 is forecast at 13.9 million bales (3.03 million metric tons, MMT), based on consistent yields. This would represent a decrease from the current season production, which is estimated at a record 14.1 million bales (3.07 MMT), where output was higher than anticipated due to favorable weather. Domestic consumption is expected to remain constant, while exports are expected to increase. Post forecasts 2023/24 MY exports at 8.5 million bales, up from the current season export estimate of 6.656 million bales. Exports continue to be encouraged by weak currency and tight ties with Brazil's main trading partner, China.