Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Annual

Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area at a slower pace, to 42.5 million hectares (ha) in 2022/23, up from the estimated 40.7 mn ha planted in the 2021/22 season. Post forecasts 2022/23 soybean production at 139 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 124.8 MMT harvest this season, assuming return to normal weather conditions. The forecast is based on current market conditions and trends - including strong demand, high prices, and a favorable exchange rate. However, the Russia/Ukraine war and resulting fertilizer supply concerns may constrain expansion. Soybean exports are estimated lower at 77 MMT for 2021/22, then forecast to rebound to 87 MMT for 2022/23. Peanut planted area and production are also forecast to rise along with soy, though exports to Russia, their largest customer, will suffer. Cottonseed area and production will shrink slightly next season (2022/23), as the sanctions cause some producers to opt for less-intensive soy.