Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update

Post lowered its 2021/22 forecast for soybean planted area further, to 39.8 million hectares (ha) and soybean production to 134.5 million metric tons (MMT). From the last estimates, weather conditions have continued to worsen in key producing regions. Principally, the drought in the south of the country has dampened prospects for a record crop. Post consequently also lowered the 2021/22 soybean export forecast to 86.8 MMT. Based on strong yields in the current 2020/21 season, Post revised up its soybean export to 88.9 MMT, a new record. For the 2021/22 MY, Post adjusted up the soybean processing forecast to 46.6 MMT. Post maintained the 2020/21 crush estimate at 46.5 MMT of soybeans. The crush forecast and estimate is driven by domestic soy oil demand, which will likely decline when the biofuel mandate is reduced to 10 percent in 2022. With high prices motivating exports, Brazilian soy stocks will hover at less than five percent of the domestic supply.