Brazil: Sugar Semi-annual

In 2024, Brazil recorded extreme weather events including the intensification of heat waves in several regions. Although the impacts of the fire outbreaks in the sugarcane production are difficult to estimate, the losses caused directly by the fires should not affect Brazil´s total sugar production in the MY 2024/25. Post maintains the forecast for Brazil´s MY 2024/25 sugarcane crush at 645 million metric tons (MMT), revising down the sugarcane production in the CS due to adverse climate conditions to 590 MMT, a decrease of 1.7 percent (600 MMT). Post is revising up the forecast for the NNE production to reflect updated data and the increase in productivity caused by good weather conditions from 44 MMT to 55 MMT. Post revises down the production of sugar in Brazil for MY2024/25 from 44 MMT to 43 MMT raw value, due to the worsening of the quality of the sugarcane. Brazil remains the second-largest recipient of the U.S. sugar tariff-rate quota, receiving an allocation of 155,993 MTRV in FY2025.