Bulgaria: Grain and Feed Market Update

FAS Sofia updates its forecasts for Bulgarian production of grain crops in marketing year (MY)2023/24 to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT), based on improving prospects for average yields for wheat, barley, and corn. Unusually rainy and cool spring led to favorable growing conditions although it hampered timely corn planting and caused higher pest and disease pressure. MY2022/23 export demand has been sluggish due to decreasing grain prices causing farmers to be reluctant sellers. A heavy Black Sea supply situation, along with volatile and unpredictable regional market, led to unusually low exports lagging behind by 36 percent for wheat, by 59 percent for barley, and by 34 percent for corn at the end of May compared to a year ago. As a result, the country will likely meet the new harvest with almost double higher wheat ending stocks and eight times more barley stocks, creating logistical and price challenges in the beginning of the new season.