Canada: Grain and Feed Update
Despite area seeded to wheat, barley, and oats in 2015/2016 increasing 4 percent above 2014/2015 levels, a dry spring and summer in Western Canada is anticipated to result in lower production due to lower yields. Total production of wheat, barley and oats in 2015/2016 is forecast at 37.2 mmt, a 5 percent decrease from 2014/2015 levels of 39.3 mmt. Lower supplies of wheat, barley and oats will limit exports. Better growing conditions being experienced in Quebec and Ontario are forecast to result in corn production increasing 6 percent above 2014/2015 production levels to reach 12.2 mmt. A return to more average supplies of corn in 2015/2016 is anticipated to limit demand for corn imports. Corn for feed use is expected to stay stagnant in 2015/2016 due to pork producers being unlike to grow their herds due to the lower prices for pork in the U.S. export market resulting from U.S. domestic oversupply. For 2014/2015, year-to-date barley import statistics show barley imports significantly higher than average. Strong demand from China has been driving Canadian barley exports and domestic barley users have been forced to increase the amount of barley they import.
