China: Grain and Feed Update
China’s corn market is driven by a perfect storm of policy shifts, adverse weather conditions and logistical bottlenecks. Current corn prices are rallying to their highest levels since October 2016. MY2017/18 corn production is forecast at 210.0 million tons, down 4 percent from MY2016/17. This is the first full crop year since the removal of the temporary reserve program for corn and implementation of “supply-side structural reforms” in 2016. China’s Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) is promoting corn growers to switch to alternatives to corn for grain, such as soybeans, wheat, sweet corn, silage corn, millet and forage. Meanwhile, the Agricultural Development Bank of China will loan MOA at least $450 billion (RMB 3 trillion) over the next three years to develop China’s agricultural sector. China is aiming to achieve results by 2020.