China: Oilseeds and Products Update
China’s MY16/17 soybean production is forecast to recover to 12.5 million metric tons (MMT) from the 11.6 MMT in the previous year, compared to the USDA official data of 11.8 MMT. Conversely, Chinese rapeseed production is expected to fall to 13.5 MMT from the 14.3 MMT in MY15/16. In 2016, China’s recovering swine production and the steady growth of its poultry sector encouraged growth in the feed production industry from the 200 MMT in 2015. To meet the feed production industry’s growing demand for protein sources, soybean imports are forecast to hit another record at 85 MMT in MY16/17, up from the estimated 82 MMT in MY15/16. This is lower than the official USDA data forecast of 87 MMT for MY16/17 and the 83 MMT estimate for MY15/16. Meanwhile, vegetable oil imports are expected to level off in response to the large crushing capacity for oil seeds coupled with China’s release of state rapeseed oil reserves.
