Improved U.S. Wheat Price Competitiveness Helps Drive Exports
U.S. wheat exports are forecast to rebound by more than a million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year (June – May), after dipping to the lowest volume in more than 50 years in 2023/24. A key driver of this increase is the improved price competitiveness of U.S. wheat, particularly Hard Red Winter, which was trading at a significant premium against the largest exporters this time last year but is now at a much smaller premium or even a relative discount. Unlike other large exporters, the United States is anticipated to have both a larger crop and robust stocks, which has placed downward pressure on U.S. prices. The lower relative prices will better position U.S. wheat to compete globally and regain lost market share.