India: India Forecasts Normal 2023 Southwest Monsoon

India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) continues to forecast a normal 2023 southwest monsoon, according to a second forecast report issued on May 26, predicting that June through September rainfall will likely reach 96 percent of the long period average (LPA)/fifty-year average of 870 millimeter (mm). However, the one-week delayed onset resulted in a 10 percent rain deficit for June. As of June 30, kharif crop sowing is on pace, as farmers have switched from rice to less water intensive coarse cereals and oilseeds. IMD forecasts above normal rainfall in July in most parts of central India, which should increase water availability and positively impact the pace of sowing. However, deficit monsoon rains in June reduced reservoir storage levels below previous year levels in western and southern India.