Indonesia: Grain and Feed Update
Despite an extended El Nino event, Indonesian rice and corn production did not experience significant declines. Production declines are limited to dryland areas, while irrigated areas are experiencing higher yields due to grain ripening from improved sunlight and dryness. Some farmers report that dryland production areas have switched to shorter duration crops such as soybean, mung bean and peanut. Post observations also noted fallow dryland areas in South Sulawesi and Java. Farmers expect that first the first crop cycle of 2015/16 will be delayed by up to one month, assuming late onset rains characteristic of El Nino. Reservoirs also appear to have ample reserves, indicating that irrigated rice planting will proceed regardless of El Nino. Post expects the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (BULOG) to import rice in 2015 in order to maintain required stock levels. Under current conditions, Indonesia is on track to achieve near-normal production of rice and corn. Post will continue to observe rainfall levels, especially during the critical months of November and December, and revise its production estimate as necessary.
