Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/Managua anticipates coffee production in marketing year 2024/25 to rebound to 2.6 million 60-kilogram bags, as a return to average precipitation levels should support historical average yields.

In MY 2024/2025, Colombian coffee production is anticipated to reach 12.4 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE). However, the pace of production recovery is hindered by El Niño, which has led to increased rates of borer infestation and affected some crops.

Indonesia’s 2024/25 coffee production is expected to recover to 10.9 million (60-kilogram) bags on favorable weather despite a delayed harvest in Southern Sumatera.

Mexico’s coffee production for marketing year 2024/25 is forecast at 3.89 million 60-kilogram bags. This represents a slight increase from previous years, driven by incentives to plant due to favorable coffee prices and ongoing efforts to improve coffee varieties.

FAS/San José projects marketing year 2024/25 coffee production to remain near record low levels, as exchange rate challenges, persistent labor shortages, and above average precipitation forecasts prevent the sector from rebounding.

El Salvador's coffee production is expected to reach 555,000 sixty-kg-bags in marketing year (MY) 2023/24. The Salvadoran coffee sector continues to be affected by climate vulnerability and an absent long-term strategy.

Guatemala coffee area was updated by the National Coffee Association (ANACAFE), accurately reporting now 376,000 hectares (Ha) from previous 305,000 Ha. The updated area and number of trees do not affect previous data or production estimates. Guatemala maintains position 9 as the largest coffee exporter and 4th largest Arabica coffee exporter worldwide.

FAS India forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024/25 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 6 million 60-kilogram bags. Deficit pre-monsoon rains (Mar/May) are expected to negatively impact yields, as fruit setting drops significantly in major growing regions.

This biannual report, published in June and December, includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in coffee.

Ample opportunities exist for U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea. Highlighted in the chart above, U.S. agricultural product exports were a record $9.5 billion in 2022, up 2 percent from 2021. South Korea is the sixth largest export market for the United States, thanks in part to a successful free trade agreement (KORUS) between the two countries and a robust demand for high-quality U.S. food products.

MY 2023/24 coffee production is lowered 3.8 million bags to 27.5 million bags due to unfavorable weather conditions as a result of climate change and El Nino climate patterns.

Indonesia’s lower Robusta coffee production is expected to cut coffee bean exports by 35 percent to 5 million bags in 2023/24, which has already caused a surge in imports in the first half of the marketing year.