Browse Data and Analysis

Argentine cattle stock, cattle slaughter, beef production, consumption and export volumes are all forecast to remain practically unchanged in 2023. China is expected to continue as the main export destination, potentially accounting for more than 70 percent of the 770,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) projected exports. Despite strong global beef demand and good prices, current, government imposed, export restrictions are projected to prevent Argentina from shipping larger volumes.

Australian beef supply is forecast to make a substantial step towards recovery in 2023 after falling to the lowest level in decades in 2021 and generating only a marginal improvement in 2022. The Australian cattle industry is expected to continue its strong herd rebuild in 2023 but with female slaughter rates rising.

In 2023, imports of breeding swine and pork are expected to decline to 5,000 head and 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), respectively, due to lower domestic hog and pork prices. Consumer price sensitivity and competition among producers are expected to constrain pork and hog price increases, squeezing margins. Strong carryover stocks of beef cattle from 2022 into 2023 will support an increase in cattle and beef production to 52.575 million head and 7.4 MMT, respectively.

India’s national cattle herd inventory in marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) is forecast marginally higher at 307.4 million head. India’s MY 2023 production of carabeef (meat derived from the Asian domestic water buffalo) and beef is forecast at 4.42 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of two percent from the current year’s estimate on continued restrictive policies on slaughter of bovine animals.

Post forecasts Mexico’s calf crop at 8.45 million head for 2023. Post forecasts cattle exports for 2023 at 1.2 million head, a slight increase from the 2022 estimate. Post forecasts beef production for 2023 at 2.22 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), almost a two percent increase from 2022.

New Zealand is expected to have already reached “peak” cattle numbers, and FAS/Wellington anticipates a very gradual decline in both dairy and beef cow numbers in the near future. One of the major influences on this is New Zealand governmental policy, and in particular regulations regarding livestock exclusion around certain water sources, as well as proposed pricing of agricultural emissions.

Many Turkish cattle farmers are struggling to make ends meet because input costs, especially feed, are increasing at a faster pace than farmgate prices for carcass meat and milk. As a result, many farmers are cutting their losses and sending their animals to slaughter earlier than normal. This trend is expected to continue into 2023 as economic conditions in the country remain bleak.

U.S. beef exports into the EU’s High Quality Beef (HQB) quota seem to finally have emerged from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions in the last quarter of the 2021/2022 quota year. In the quota year 2022-2023, U.S. beef exporters can at last start benefitting from the 2019 agreement with the EU about reserving a U.S. specific part of the HQB quota, which was negotiated between the United States and the European Union in 2009.

On July 1, 2022, a new quota year starts for the EU High Quality Beef Quota. U.S. exporters can use this quota as well as the Hilton quota for exporting high quality bovine meat to the European Union. This report provides an update on the programs and the certification requirements for both tariff rate quotas.