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In 2023, dairy product imports are forecast to remain near 2022 levels but a number of factors, including high global dairy prices, increased domestic production, and a weak economic outlook could weigh heavily on trade. Raw milk production in 2023 is expected to reach nearly 41.7 million metric tons (MMT).

Brazil is the fourth-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural and processed products in South America and depends on international suppliers to meet its demand for food processing ingredients, especially specialty products with high added value. These products offer significant opportunities for U.S. companies to supply Brazilian food manufacturers looking to meet the needs of a growing health-conscious consumer market.

On September 12, 2022, the Sri Lanka Standards Institution (SLSI) notified draft amendment standards (number 1) to SLS 917:2018 for milk added drinks to the World Trade Organization (WTO). WTO members are invited to submit comments on notification G/TBT/N/LKA/51. The comment period expires on November 12, 2022.

The outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) has significantly disrupted Indonesia’s fresh milk production, which dropped 35 percent compared with the previous years’ production. The decline in domestic fresh milk production has been offset by a significant increase in imported whole milk powder. A rebound of the food service sector industry is expected to support a modest increase in the trade of dairy ingredients in 2022 and 2023.

Milk production in 2023 in Australia is forecast to decline by another two percent to 8.4 million metric tons (MMT), after an estimated six percent fall in 2022 to 8.55 MMT. This decline is expected despite a big increase in farm gate milk prices for 2022/23 to far exceed the previous record, and overall good seasonal production conditions for dairy farmers leading into the forecast year.

New Zealand milk production is forecasted to fall slightly in 2023. Although milk prices are at extremely high levels and expected to remain elevated, a number of issues are limiting the production response. This includes a slowly declining national herd, and also that on-farm inflation is expected to remain high as a result of the weak NZ dollar impacting imported input prices, as well as strong global fuel prices.

On October 27, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a new order pertaining to FSSAI Order F. No. 1829/Health Certificate/ FSSAI/Imports (2021), which extends the effective compliance date. The new effective compliance date is now set for January 1, 2023 (the previous effective compliance date was November 1, 2022).

Domestic milk production is forecast to decrease to 2 million tons in 2023. 2022 milk production is projected to drop to 2.01 million tons after reaching 2.34 million tons in 2021. Milk production is expected to show a decreasing trend due to the decreasing number of dairy farms and falling demand for milk.

FAS/Canada projects modest growth for milk and cheese production in 2023, as consumption remains stable, and the market is partially supplied by rising import volumes following implementation of Canada’s various trade agreements. Butter production is forecast to grow in 2023, as stocks remain low, depleted by sustained strong consumption.

FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) fluid milk production to increase by nearly two percent to 207 million metric tons (MMT) assuming normal 2023 southwest monsoon (June-September) and weather conditions ensuring sufficient availability of fodder.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

Even as Mexico's consumers face high core and food inflation, post sees both overall dairy production and imports rising in 2023. Mexico’s milk and cheese production is forecast to rise in 2023 due to increased investments in dairy operations in key producing areas.