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The outlook for the 2022/23 apple season in New Zealand is much more optimistic with the opening of international borders following COVID-19 restrictions. While the last two apple harvests were severely impacted by the lack of labor, the return of overseas workers under the Recognized Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme is expected to help allow a recovery in production, with the forecast up 12 percent from the previous year’s estimated crop.

Owing to favorable growing conditions and ongoing investments to improve on-farm yields, Turkey’s production and export of apples, pears, and table grapes is forecast at or near record levels in MY 2022/23. At least 80 percent of the projected production of these deciduous fruits will be consumed in Turkey, mainly as fresh fruit.

Morocco has become the 15th-largest fruit exporter in the world by value. According to the most recent estimates (2019) by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 66 percent of its land area is devoted to agriculture, with more than 7 percent devoted to fruit production.

On November 4, 2022, the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT) announced the results of the 2022 U.S. orange tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocations. Korea switched to a new license allocation system this year, replacing the import rights auction process used in prior years. A key piece of the new allocation system is that 80 percent of the total TRQ is reserved for importers with historical import volumes, while the remaining 20 percent is reserved for new importers.

Grape production in Peru is forecast to reach 766,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, an increase of seven percent compared to the previous year. Domestic consumption of fresh grapes is forecast at 186,000 MT in MY 2022/2023, a six percent increase from MY 2021/22. Peruvian grape exports are forecast to reach a record of 586,000 MT in MY 2022/2023, eight percent higher than the previous year. The United States will continue to be the lead export market.

China’s apple and pear production is expected to drop by 11 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on year to 41 MMT and 17.85 MMT in MY 2022/23, because of weather abnormalities and farmers reducing acreage of bearing trees. Table grape production is estimated to continue increasing by 5 percent to 12.6 MMT on improved crop management. Apple imports will likely rebound strongly due to consumer demand for new varieties developed by major suppliers. Table grape imports will further decline because of the improved quantity and quality of domestic supplies.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, FAS Santiago estimates that table grape production will decrease by 7.1 percent reaching 732,000 metric tons (MT) and exports will decrease by 7.1 percent, totaling 565,000 metric tons.

India’s domestic apple and pear production in market year (MY) (July-June) 2022/23 are estimated at 2.35 million metric tons (MMT) and 311,000 metric tons (MT), respectively. Favorable rainfall in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh has augmented yields and will lead to increased exports. Market year 2022/23 apple imports are estimated at 430,000 MT.

Korea’s 2022/23 pear production is projected to increase by 16 percent, driven mostly by increased yields due to favorable weather. Korean pear consumption is projected to rise by 14.3 percent following a 6 percent fall in market prices, with the balance of increased production going to exports. Fresh pear imports (including U.S. origin) are not allowed under Korea’s existing phytosanitary regulations.

EU commercial apple production in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 11.9 MMT, an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous year. EU commercial pear production is expected to amount to 1.99 MMT, a rebound from the 14% lower crop in the previous year.

In 2022, industries report a 35 to 40 percent increase in cultivation costs to reach almost $28,000 per hectare. The increase in costs is due to the challenges of US dollar liquidity and high inflation. In MY 2022/2021, production is expected to reach 1.48 MMT and exports are forecasted at 180,000 MT. In 2022, Egypt added Sri-Lanka and Cameron to the list of importing countries.

Taiwan’s domestic apple production rose to 1,458 MT in MY 2021/2022, though production area continues to shrink due to economic, trade, and environmental factors. Taiwan’s apple demand remains strong and consumption is almost entirely import dependent. Total imports in MY 2021/2022 were 151,260 MT and are forecast to increase to 154,000 in MY 2022/2023. The United States holds the largest market share by volume, though New Zealand is rapidly gaining market share and enjoys a tariff advantage.