Browse Data and Analysis

South Africa’s corn crop in marketing year 2023/24 has been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected drop of more than 15 percent in crop volume.

FAS Bangkok forecasts Thailand’s rice and corn production to marginally increase in MY 2024/25 along with expanded acreage in response to current attractive farm-gate prices. In 2025, Thailand will likely export 7.5 million metric tons of rice or well above its 5-year average.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 milled rice production will increase to 12.125 million MT as the country emerges from the current El Nino and government spending on inputs and machinery contributes to increased yield.

Wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 are forecast at 2 million metric tons (MMT). Canada led the Peruvian wheat market in calendar year (CY) 2023 with 72 percent market share.

Rice export prices dropped 2-3 percent as the Thai baht weakened and new MY 2023/24 off-season rice supplies entered the market.

In market year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia’s corn production is forecast to decrease to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) influenced by lower domestic corn prices and dissuading farmers from expanding corn cultivation.

FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase in corn imports and consumption in MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 due to softening global prices and the rebound of the layer population following the recovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.

FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya's corn production will remain unchanged year-on-year in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 3.7 million metric tons (MT) due to similar growing conditions, area harvested, and input availability.

The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is higher year-on-year for corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum based on farmer planting decisions on more average weather conditions and a gradual recovery from exceptional drought conditions.

With the development of several billion-dollar projects and nearly 30 million visitors a year, the future for U.S. grain exports is bright. Post anticipates Saudi rice imports to increase approximately five percent over the next several years due to expansions in the food service sector.

Rice export prices stayed virtually unchanged as the strengthening of the Thai baht offset the downward price pressure from new off-season MY 2023/24 rice supplies entering the market.

On February 29, 2024, India's Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) released its Indian crop year (ICY) 2023/2024 (July-June) Second Advance Estimate. The MoAFW is forecasting grain production (excluding the summer crop) lower at 309.3 million metric tons (MMT) compared to 313.6 MMT last year on expected lower production of rice, corn, and other coarse grains, while wheat and barley production is forecast higher at new record levels.