Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2022/23 wheat and rice production in Japan to decrease from last year's bumper crop due to poor weather conditions in major production regions. Due to favorable weather, Post estimates the MY2022/23 barley crop to increase from MY2021/22.

The Government of Morocco has released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2022 crop, including 1.89 MMT of common wheat, 0.81 MMT of durum wheat, and 0.7 MMT of barley. The MY2022/23 wheat and barley harvest was down 67 percent compared to previous season due to severe drought.

Corn and wheat production forecasts remain unchanged in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Due to unfavorable weather conditions and less planted area, the sorghum production estimate is revised downward from USDA/Official estimate for MY 2021/22.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the percentage of exported agricultural production for 25 top commodities.

Persistent drought from May to August 2022 has damaged most of the spring crops in Serbia, mainly corn, soya, and fruits. Crop yields are forecast to decline by 20-30 percent, with total losses potentially reaching $ billion.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the growth in exports of several key bulk agricultural commodities since 1989.

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Producers in Kazakhstan's three main wheat producing regions reported no adverse weather events and precipitation has been generally more than last year, especially through June, although July precipitation in some areas has come in slightly lower.

Dry and warm conditions across the EU, combined with a decline in corn plantings, are anticipated to reduce the bloc’s total grain production in MY 2022/23. Nevertheless, EU exports of grains are expected to remain stable and partially replace Black Sea Region origins in international grain markets. EU grain importing Member States will expand their purchases in alternative grain suppliers to make up for the limited access to Ukrainian grain and the shorter domestic availability.

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

Australia is expected to produce a third consecutive big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another broadly favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting and the early growth phase across most production regions bodes well for wheat and barley production in MY 2022/23.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Barley exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 3.7 million tons, the same as in MY 2021-2022.

The weak southwest monsoon in first half of June 2022 slowed ongoing plantings of the kharif (fall harvested) season crops. Plantings will recover under adequate soil moisture conditions with the revival of monsoon starting the third week of June, along with expected normal precipitation in July. On July 6, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry notified authorizing the export of wheat flour and other products (Harmonized Tariff System - HS code 1101) only on the recommendation of Inter-Ministerial Committee on the Export of Wheat.