Browse Data and Analysis

Declining cases of COVID-19 globally and domestically are expected to increase overall demand for textile and textile products. Therefore, following an 8.2 percent decline in 2020/21, cotton imports are expected rebound by 12.7 percent to 2.6 million bales in 2021/22.

Higher downstream demand for textiles and garments and reduced cotton yarn imports are expected to raise spinning demand for cotton in marketing year (MY) 22/23, lifting cotton imports to an estimated 2.3 million metric tons (MMT).

FAS Bangkok (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton imports slightly larger than MY2021/22 in line with the global economic recovery and anticipated rising demand from key foreign trade partners. There has been a significant increase of imported cotton in MY2021/22 due to foreign customers’ pent-up demand for both textile and garment products from the previous years.

Despite ongoing high demand, Post estimates that U.S. cotton exports to Vietnam will decline by 25 percent in marketing year (MY) 21/22 due to price volatility, ongoing logistical challenges, and tough competition from Australia. Post forecasts Vietnam cotton imports for MY22/23 will increase 5 percent to approximately 8.2 million bales or about 1.78 million metric tons (MMT).

Turkey’s cotton production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast to increase to 925,000 metric tons (MT) (4.2 million bales) based on the assumption that farmers will plant more cotton in response to strong cotton prices. Growing demand for textiles and apparel is expected to push MY 2022/23 cotton consumption higher to 1.9 million MT (8.7 million bales).

The drought in Andalucía is anticipated to drive down area planted to cotton in Spain in MY2022/23. However, cotton crop area is highly inelastic given the few alternative crops available, and the fact that a significant part of the CAP payment to cotton continues to be linked to production partially offsets the potential area reduction.

Cotton production in Australia is primed to set a new record of 6 million bales in MY 2022/23, after a bumper harvest estimate of 5.5 million bales in MY 2021/22. This forecast is due to the strong prospect of increased irrigation water availability at the start of planting in October 2022 along with current high cotton prices and strong futures prices.

Greece’s MY 2021/22 cotton production is estimated at 1.35 million 480 lb. bales, down 3.6 percent from the previous season due to a decrease in area planted. Greece is a major cotton exporter. Turkey was the main destination in MY 2020/21, representing 50.1 percent of total exports.

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts MY 2022/23 cotton production will increase by five percent to 27.7 million 480 lb. bales on an area of 12.7 million hectares, two percent higher than last year. Yields are expected to improve by two percent to 475 kilograms per hectare on the expectation of a normal monsoon.

With expectations for a slight increase in area, but stagnant yields, 2022/23 production is forecast to reach 6.22 million bales, a 3.7 percent increase over 2021/22.

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 cotton production at 27.4 million 480 lb. bales on an area of 12.1 million hectares. Farmers continue to limit market arrivals due to rising seed cotton prices, increasing input costs for textile value chains.

The Ethiopian Sugar Corporation (ESC) and the Ethiopian Industrial Input Development Enterprise (EIIDE) have separately issued international competitive tenders to purchase 200,000 metric tons (MT) of white cane sugar and 10,000 MT of lint cotton, respectively.