Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts sugar production in Marketing Year (MY) 2023 to decline by 50,000 MT to 2 million MT, as high fertilizer prices lead to reduced yields. Production for MY 2022 is also lowered to reflect the damage to sugar farms in December 2021 by Typhoon Rai (local name Odette).

Earlier investments in mechanization, irrigation, and co-generation of electricity for the national energy grid have helped insulate the sugar industry from domestic political instability, but access to and pricing of fuel and fertilizer could negatively affect sugarcane production in marketing year 2022/23.

Sugar production recovered to normal levels between 10 and 11 million metric tons in MY2021/22 and will remain at those same levels in MY2022/23 due to high fertilizer costs and limited acreage expansion. The recovery in exportable sugar supplies will help boost raw and refined sugar exports in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23.

Jamaica’s raw sugar production in Marketing Year (MY)2021/2022 was 40,450 MT, eight percent lower than the previous MY. In MY 2022/23, Post projects 38,000 MT of sugar due to falling production.

In marketing year 2022/2023, Guatemala is forecast to produce 2.6 million metric tons of sugar from sugarcane from a harvested area of 258,000 hectares.

Australia’s sugar production is forecast to increase to 4.45 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, from an estimated 4.12 MMT in MY 2021/22. This increase is due to an expected rise in sugar cane crush to 32 MMT in MY 2022/23, from an estimate of 30.1 MMT in the previous year.

FAS/San José expects Costa Rican sugar cane production in marketing year 2021/22 to fall by 2 percent – remaining just below 4 million metric tons – driving sugar production down 2 percent to 416,000 metric tons on lower projected yields.

Sugar cane production in MY 2023 is forecast at 11 MMT while cane sugar production if forecast to reach 1.32 MMT. Higher sugar prices are expected to encourage higher sugar output. The United States remains the main market for Peruvian sugar exports under the TRQ program.

Due to slight increases in area and sugarcane yields, sugar production in 2022/23 is forecast to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal increase over the good 2021/22 crop. Sugar consumption for 2022/23 is forecast at 6.1 MMT, which would be a 3.3 percent increase, reflecting population growth and demand from the expanding food processing sector.

The Ethiopian Sugar Corporation (ESC) and the Ethiopian Industrial Input Development Enterprise (EIIDE) have separately issued international competitive tenders to purchase 200,000 metric tons (MT) of white cane sugar and 10,000 MT of lint cotton, respectively.

On December 14, 2021, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released its findings from the dispute panel initiated in August 2019 against India’s trade distorting sugar subsidies. The WTO report found that India’s subsidies violated its obligations under the multilateral agreement.

The sugar production forecast for MY21/22 (October – September) is revised down to 10.3 MMT on slower than expected growth in cane acreage and more sugar beet acreage losing out to corn.