Browse Data and Analysis

South Africa is on course to produce a fourth consecutive bumper corn crop in MY 2022/23, which creates a bearish outlook on local corn prices and will limit growth in the area to be planted with corn in MY2023/24.

Assurances of support from bilateral creditors and the IMF, and goodwill from the international community in helping Ghana weather the economic storm has offered a brighter hope of an economic resurgence.

Despite a slight reduction in planted area, 2023/2024 wheat production is forecast to reach 27.0 million tons, two percent higher than last year. With consumption growth expected to outstrip the increase in production, 2023/24 wheat imports are forecast to reach 2.6 million tons.

Recent available data indicates that Saudi Arabia imported approximately 2.7 million metric tons (MMT) of barley in the first six months of MY 2022/23 (July – December 2022), an increase of approximately 11% compared to the same period last year (2.46 MMT).

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post forecasts rice harvested area and production at 11.9 million hectares and 37.1 million metric tons (MT), respectively. Post forecasts MY 2023/24 wheat imports at 6.0 million MT, with corn imports at 2.4 million MT.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post forecasts wheat area harvested will reach 215,000 hectares (ha) and production will total 1.32 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from MY 2022/23 as production was limited by the high costs of inputs.

High commodity prices in the international market during the last term of 2022 are expected to impede the growth of 2022/23 Indonesian wheat imports and curb the use of wheat in feed formulation.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023-2024 is forecast to remain flat at 1.2 million metric tons. Production will remain flat despite a larger harvested area as Post projects a return to trend from high yields in the previous season.

Post forecasts MY 2023/24 wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) and barley production at 1.4 MMT, in line with the previous season as climatic conditions are similar.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.70 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, a 2.8 percent decrease from Post’s MY 2022/23 figure.

Due to continued elevated agricultural input costs, Mexico’s corn production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 27.4 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the year prior. Lower than expected planting intentions data accounts for slightly lower rice and wheat production forecasts.

FAS/Nairobi forecasts an increase in corn and wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, to 3.18 million metric tons (MT) and 310,000 MT respectively due to increases in harvested area as farmers respond to high crop prices by planting more wheat and corn.