Browse Data and Analysis

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post's forecast for rice harvested area and production remain unchanged at 11.5 million hectares and 35.65 million metric tons (MT), the same as the USDA official forecasts. Post's wheat production forecast in MY 2022/23 also remains unchanged from Post's previous projection.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

Colombia’s economy is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, restricting a more substantial growth in demand for grains in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Although the United States continues to be the main sourcing option for Colombian importers of corn given trade preferences under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement and geographical advantages, increasing competition from Brazilian and Argentinian corn is expected.

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.

FAS New Delhi (Post) lowers the market year (MY) 2022/2023 rice production forecast to 122 MMT on reduced plantings and yields in the major rice growing states in the Gangetic Plains as result of drought-like conditions.

On September 20, 2022, the Congress of the State of Mexico (one of Mexico’s 32 states) approved the Law for the Promotion and Protection of Local Corn Varieties. The law states that the Government of the State of Mexico will cooperate with Mexico's federal authorities to ensure that local corn varieties in the state are free of genetically engineered (GE) corn.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Bulgaria expects to harvest a corn crop of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), 18 percent lower than in MY 2021/22. The decrease can be attributed to nine percent decline in area planted, yields severely impacted by the summer drought and heat, and higher pest infestation.

High production costs, price instability and lingering disease threats discouraged livestock production which has kept overall 2022 feed demand flat compared to the previous year. Due to high corn prices as well as flat feed demand, Post revises its marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn consumption down to 13.80 million metric tons (MMT) and imports down to 9.20 MMT.

Post forecasts China's MY2022/23 feed and residual to decrease one percent from MY2021/22. Corn production for MY2022/23 is forecast at 270 MMT, 4 MMT lower than USDA’s official forecast and 2.5 MMT lower than MY2021/22 due to lower planting area and yield losses caused by excessive rains in the northeast.

FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (July – June) at 11.0 MMT, down from the previous marketing year estimate of 11.5 MMT. Egypt was able to secure a steady supply of wheat through diversification of wheat origins whether through tenders or implementing direct purchasing of wheat from several countries.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).