Browse Data and Analysis

MY 2023/24 corn production is anticipated to increase roughly 3 percent to 6.1 million metric tons (MT) as more farmers switch to corn production in response to high prices. Post anticipates production will remain below historical levels due to high fertilizer prices and fall army worm outbreaks.

FAS/Tokyo projects reduced corn imports and feed consumption in MY2022/23 due to large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as well as increased competition from domestic feed rice, followed by a recovery of corn consumption in MY2023/24.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Colombia's corn and rice production are forecast to marginally increase driven by higher domestic prices and expected normalized weather conditions. However, high production costs continue to be a challenge for Colombian producers.

Post forecasts that MY2023/24 rice production will reach a five-year record of 20.4 million metric tons due to abundant water supplies and attractive farm-gate prices.

In 2022, the Government of Ecuador continued to support floor prices for local production of corn, rice, and wheat as well as began subsidizing the price of fertilizers for small producers.

Post forecasts that consumption and imports of corn, wheat and rice in Malaysia will slightly increase in Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24, in line with population growth and normalization of the market.

Bulgaria harvested a 26 percent lower grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 compared to MY2021/22, including reductions of 12 percent for wheat, 11 percent for barley, and 26 percent for corn.

FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

India’s upcoming rabi (winter sown, spring harvested) crop acreages has been boosted to record levels on adequate 2022 monsoon rains in October and generally favorable weather conditions.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

New Zealand grain and feed import volumes in 2022 rose to the highest level ever, importing 3.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 13 percent from the previous year. National grain and feed demand continues to outstrip domestic supply by nearly double, with New Zealand producing 2.1 MMT in 2022, but consuming an estimated 5.8 MMT.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains its forecast wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 barley imports at 772 thousand metric tons, in line with the import volume seen last year.