Browse Data and Analysis

Corn and wheat production forecasts remain unchanged in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Due to unfavorable weather conditions and less planted area, the sorghum production estimate is revised downward from USDA/Official estimate for MY 2021/22.

Persistent drought from May to August 2022 has damaged most of the spring crops in Serbia, mainly corn, soya, and fruits. Crop yields are forecast to decline by 20-30 percent, with total losses potentially reaching $ billion.

Posts forecasts that marketing year (MY) 2022/23 rice production will increase for the third consecutive year due to available water supply and abundant precipitation. High prices of chemical fertilizers and other inputs will likely impact corn production and yield as farmers apply less chemical fertilizer this season.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the growth in exports of several key bulk agricultural commodities since 1989.

Despite lower production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Zambia’s production of its staple crop, corn, will be sufficient to meet domestic demand. Zambia’s corn crop is forecast to decline by 25 percent to 2.7 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/23, after producing a record crop 3.6 MMT in MY 2021/22.

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

Wheat imports for 2021/22 are revised upward to 11.2 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 11.0 MMT, reflecting recovering demand for flour-based foods. In line with increased imports, food, seed, and industry (FSI) wheat consumption is also revised up 2.2 percent to 9.1 MMT of wheat equivalent.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 rice harvested area at 11.5 million hectares and production at 35.65 million metric tons (MT), down slightly from the USDA official numbers due to crop damage resulting from heavy floods in the northern part of the country. Local prices of rice, wheat, and corn hit record highs in July 2022.

On June 29, 2022, the European Commission (EC) approved one genetically engineered (GE) crop (maize) for food and animal feed. The authorization was published in the European Union’s Official Journal on July 1, 2022 and remains valid for 10 years.

The sharp upsurge in the cost of farming inputs for corn farmers in South Africa intensified the risk of production in a weather dependent industry, despite record-high commodity prices. As a result, Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. However, South Africa should maintain its status as a net exporter of corn under normal weather conditions.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.

Wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast slightly lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.