Browse Data and Analysis

In marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 Post forecasts Uruguay to increase its wheat area somewhat, but production and exports would be marginally lower than in the past two marketing years due lower expected yield.

Forecasts of below average rainfall and extended dry spells in most parts of the country by the Ghana Meteorological Agency, looming shortage and soaring global prices of fertilizer, and a further cutback on fertilizer subsidy rate are set to erode the grain production gains of GOG’s Planting for Food and Jobs program.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher.

Post forecasts overall feed demand to decline by 2 percent in MY2022/23 as prices rise and additional contraction of the swine industry is anticipated. Corn for feed consumption in MY2022/23 is forecast up 2.8 percent, or 6 million metric tons (MMT). MY2022/23 corn, wheat, and rice production are all forecast down due to the push to increase oilseed production and weather conditions in major wheat growing areas.

The Government of Ecuador continues defining the yearly minimum price for local production of corn, rice, and wheat. The Minister of Agriculture supports the reduction of corn area and the shift to other crops that are mainly focused on the export market.

Post’s marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 rice harvested area and production forecast is 11.75 million hectares and 36.32 million metric tons (MT), respectively. Local prices of rice, wheat, and corn hit record highs in March 2022 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has increased volatility. Post forecasts MY 2022/2023 wheat at 7.5 million MT and corn imports at 2.3 million MT.

FAS/Seoul projects Korea’s corn imports and consumption to increase in 2022/23 to support anticipated growth in animal inventories, following an expected decrease in corn imports in 2021/22 due to the war in Ukraine. Korean wheat consumption in 2022/23 is forecast to decline 15 percent due to reduced feed wheat supply.

High global commodity prices are expected to slow the growth of 2021/22 Indonesian wheat imports and lower the use of wheat in feed formulation.

Wheat consumption in the Dominican Republic (DR) during Marketing Year (MY) 2022/2023 (July 2022/ June 2023) is forecast at 451,000 metric tons (MT), virtually flat from MY 2021/22. Dominican imports are forecast at 610,000 MT, a 2 percent increase from the last MY, due to increased exports of Dominican wheat products and the adverse effects of international wheat process on local demand for wheat products.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY)2022/23 rice and corn production 2 percent higher than MY2021/22 figures, benefiting from sufficient water supplies and attractive farm-gate prices.

The Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) projects domestic wheat production at 700,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2021/2022, up approximately 17 percent from USDA’s official estimate of 600,000 MT. Experts anticipate local domestic wheat production could reach 1 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/2023 to offset expected import delays from Russia and Ukraine as a result of the ongoing war.