Browse Data and Analysis

Dry and warm conditions across the EU, combined with a decline in corn plantings, are anticipated to reduce the bloc’s total grain production in MY 2022/23. Nevertheless, EU exports of grains are expected to remain stable and partially replace Black Sea Region origins in international grain markets. EU grain importing Member States will expand their purchases in alternative grain suppliers to make up for the limited access to Ukrainian grain and the shorter domestic availability.

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

Australia is expected to produce a third consecutive big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another broadly favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting and the early growth phase across most production regions bodes well for wheat and barley production in MY 2022/23.

Significant rainfall has alleviated severe drought conditions in large regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan but more is required to support wheat growth. Large regions of Manitoba that were waterlogged in June, now have adequate conditions after a heat wave dried up excess water.

Wheat imports for 2021/22 are revised upward to 11.2 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 11.0 MMT, reflecting recovering demand for flour-based foods. In line with increased imports, food, seed, and industry (FSI) wheat consumption is also revised up 2.2 percent to 9.1 MMT of wheat equivalent.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Barley exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 3.7 million tons, the same as in MY 2021-2022.

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 rice harvested area at 11.5 million hectares and production at 35.65 million metric tons (MT), down slightly from the USDA official numbers due to crop damage resulting from heavy floods in the northern part of the country. Local prices of rice, wheat, and corn hit record highs in July 2022.

The weak southwest monsoon in first half of June 2022 slowed ongoing plantings of the kharif (fall harvested) season crops. Plantings will recover under adequate soil moisture conditions with the revival of monsoon starting the third week of June, along with expected normal precipitation in July. On July 6, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry notified authorizing the export of wheat flour and other products (Harmonized Tariff System - HS code 1101) only on the recommendation of Inter-Ministerial Committee on the Export of Wheat.

On June 30, Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 815,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat in a tender from four countries – France, Romania, Russia, and Bulgaria.

Post revises China's Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 feed demand upward by 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on recovering demand for hog feed. Rice substitution for corn in feed rations may play a more significant role because of price advantages over corn and other corn substitutes. Post adjusts wheat production in MY2022/23 upward by 2 MMT to 135 MMT based on improved growing conditions.

On May 17, the Government of Iraq (GOI) announced higher purchase prices for locally-produced wheat in an effort to incentivize farmers to market their crop to the Ministry of Trade. On June 8, the GOI also passed a food security bill that allows the government to use public funds to meet urgent food needs, including issuing tenders to import wheat.

The Algerian Minister of Agriculture forecasts Algerian grain production to reach 3 to 3.2 million metric tons (MMT) in MY2022/23. This is an increase from last marketing year and supports the Algerian policy to increase domestic production.