Browse Data and Analysis

In 2023, dairy product imports are forecast to remain near 2022 levels but a number of factors, including high global dairy prices, increased domestic production, and a weak economic outlook could weigh heavily on trade. Raw milk production in 2023 is expected to reach nearly 41.7 million metric tons (MMT).

China’s avocado production and imports are estimated to grow as the demand for high-quality fresh avocados continue to rise. Top consumers are females, under 35 years of age, and residing in first-tier cities.

China’s apple and pear production is expected to drop by 11 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on year to 41 MMT and 17.85 MMT in MY 2022/23, because of weather abnormalities and farmers reducing acreage of bearing trees. Table grape production is estimated to continue increasing by 5 percent to 12.6 MMT on improved crop management. Apple imports will likely rebound strongly due to consumer demand for new varieties developed by major suppliers. Table grape imports will further decline because of the improved quantity and quality of domestic supplies.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.

China’s marketing year (MY) 22/23 soybean production is forecast to reach a near-record 19 million metric tons (MMT) on higher yields. Post maintains forecasted MY 22/23 soybean imports at 96.5 MMT on higher demand for soybean meal (SBM) for swine and poultry and vegetable oil demand for food sector use. Import growth is forecast to be partially constrained by higher domestic soybean production, ongoing sales of state reserve soybeans, and ongoing uncertainty regarding People’s Republic of China (PRC) COVID restrictions.

Since September 8, 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) has auctioned 127,100 metric tons (MT) of frozen pork reserves as an attempt to curb rising prices. However, despite numerous auctions and other PRC market guidance, domestic prices continue to rise.

On September 23, 2022, the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) published 2022 Special Announcement Number 88 amending the customs clearance declaration requirements for importers or consignees of non-cold chain products to require a declaration on whether “preventive disinfection has been implemented” (according to the “Standards for On-site Disinfection Evaluation During the COVID-19 Epidemic” (WS/T 774-2021).

On August 17, 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), National Health Commission (NHC) released an updated Catalogue of National Food Safety Standards. The updated list features 1,455 standards covering food products, additives, quality specifications, testing methods, and production practices. This report provides an unofficial translation of the Catalogue.

China’s estimated MY2021/22 sugar imports and stocks are revised upward, while consumption is revised downward due to low world prices and COVID-related policy impacts. Assuming beet acreage rebounds in Inner Mongolia, the MY2022/23 sugar production remains forecasted at 10 MMT.

The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) recently made updates at the end of September 2022 to the list of products subject to Decree 248, removing 100 and adding 148.

To promote a greater dialogue with the People's Republic of China (PRC) on issues related to climate, the FAS offices in China launched “Agriculture for a Better Future,” a series of social media posts on U.S. Mission to China social media platforms.

On September 2, 2022, the National People’s Congress (NPC) published an updated Agricultural Product Quality and Safety Law of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Though domestically focused, some articles of the law hold the potential to impact trade, including sections on cold chain logistics and traceability.