Browse Data and Analysis

FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) fluid milk production to increase by nearly two percent to 207 million metric tons (MMT) assuming normal 2023 southwest monsoon (June-September) and weather conditions ensuring sufficient availability of fodder.

Poland is Central and Eastern Europe’s largest market for food and beverage products. With a population of nearly 38 million people, Poland is a large and growing market for U.S. food and agricultural products.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY 2022/23) harvested area and production will only slightly increase from the previous year due to a recovery from floods and storms, expectation of lower oil prices, and more adoption of technology.

Colombia’s economy is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, restricting a more substantial growth in demand for grains in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Although the United States continues to be the main sourcing option for Colombian importers of corn given trade preferences under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement and geographical advantages, increasing competition from Brazilian and Argentinian corn is expected.

The area under apple, pears, and table grape cultivation in South Africa has grown steadily over the past decade, driven by ongoing investments into the deciduous fruit sector on relatively high earnings from export markets. However, the expansion in apple, pears, and table grape production is expected to alleviate in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, despite the production of record crops in MY 2021/22.

Owing to improved weather conditions, grain production in Turkey in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is projected to increase year-over-year to 17.3 million metric tons (MMT). Wheat, barley, corn, and rice production are individually projected higher from last year which was hit by intense dry weather.

Dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease significantly in 2022. The decrease is driven by a war-related economic downturn, direct animal losses in war-affected areas and a historic reduction in less-efficient animals. Fluid milk and dairy product outputs are expected to drop notably in 2022. The decline will continue in 2023 due to the reduced animal number and continued war-related economic downturn.

Imports of chicken meat and products in 2023 are forecast to increase to 418,000 metric tons as the UAE’s expanding economy, population, and concomitant building boom fuel higher demand and thus consumption. Transshipments or reexports are playing a growing role in the Arabian Gulf poultry trade and have risen by 74 percent over the last four years.

The Indonesian foodservice industry is valued at USD$22.8 billion, making it the largest market in Southeast Asia. Leading U.S. food prospects in this market include cheese, frozen potatoes, beef, fruits, pork, wine, and tree nut products that mostly used by international hotel chains, high-end restaurants, and international fast-food chains.

Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Development Plan (2021-2030) identifies sustained and quality agriculture programs to accelerate economic progress and ensure national food security as its national strategy. The development of small and large-scale irrigation infrastructure in the Ethiopian lowlands has recently been given increasing due attention by the GOE - among other contributing factors like improved seed, fertilizer supply, and use of mechanization on the clustered wheat farms.