Browse Data and Analysis

The Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) projects domestic wheat production at 700,000 metric tons (MT) in MY 2021/2022, up approximately 17 percent from USDA’s official estimate of 600,000 MT. Experts anticipate local domestic wheat production could reach 1 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/2023 to offset expected import delays from Russia and Ukraine as a result of the ongoing war.

Egypt is closely following the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Certainly Egypt’s grains imports from both countries were affected. Accordingly, FAS Cairo forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in MY 2022/23 (July – June) at 11 MMT, down by 8.3 percent from MY 2021/22 Post’s import estimate figure of 12 MMT.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Colombia's corn and rice production are forecast to marginally decrease from the previous year as a result of lower crop productivity due to rising prices of fertilizers and potential supply disruption of these inputs.

FAS Manila forecasts Market Year (MY) 2022/23 milled rice production will reach 12.4 million metric tons (MT), flat with the previous year’s near-record high. The Philippine government’s support programs will help rice farmers partially offset rising input costs.

After exceptional consecutive production seasons of solid growth supported by relatively high commodity prices and favorable weather conditions, wheat and corn producers in South Africa are optimistically looking forward to the 2022 production season.

MY2022/23 corn production is forecast to decrease by approximately 16 percent to 5.9 million metric tons (MMT) due to drought conditions, fall armyworm infestations, and high fertilizer prices.

Due to lower area and yields, wheat production in 2022/23 is forecast at 26.4 million metric tons (MMT), four percent lower than last year. To make up for the expected domestic shortfall, in 2022/23 wheat imports are forecast at 1.5 MMT.

Peruvian wheat production in MY 2022/2023 is forecast at 220,000 MT. Wheat imports in MY 2022/2023 are forecast at 2.25 MMT. Corn production in MY 2022/2023 is forecast at 1.7 MMT.

Kenya MY2022/23 corn production is forecast at 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), largely unchanged from MY2021/22 due to high fertilizer prices and farmers switching to alternative crops such as sugarcane.

FAS Tel Aviv (Post) forecasts Israel’s wheat imports to reach 1.74 million metric tons (MMT) in market year (MY) 2022/23, a 2 percent increase from Post’s MY 2021/22 figure. In MY 2021/22, U.S. wheat accounted for 8.2 percent of the market, up 55 percent from the previous year.

FAS Tokyo projects Japan’s overall demand for feed grain to remain robust in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as livestock production expands. FAS Tokyo anticipates corn imports to decrease in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as feed millers increase the ratio of low-cost rice at the expense of corn in compound feed.

This report contains FAS-Nur-Sultan’s production estimates for MY2021/22 and trade estimates for MY2022/23.