Browse Data and Analysis

Argentine cattle stock, cattle slaughter, beef production, consumption and export volumes are all forecast to remain practically unchanged in 2023. China is expected to continue as the main export destination, potentially accounting for more than 70 percent of the 770,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) projected exports. Despite strong global beef demand and good prices, current, government imposed, export restrictions are projected to prevent Argentina from shipping larger volumes.

Australian beef supply is forecast to make a substantial step towards recovery in 2023 after falling to the lowest level in decades in 2021 and generating only a marginal improvement in 2022. The Australian cattle industry is expected to continue its strong herd rebuild in 2023 but with female slaughter rates rising.

In 2023, imports of breeding swine and pork are expected to decline to 5,000 head and 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), respectively, due to lower domestic hog and pork prices. Consumer price sensitivity and competition among producers are expected to constrain pork and hog price increases, squeezing margins. Strong carryover stocks of beef cattle from 2022 into 2023 will support an increase in cattle and beef production to 52.575 million head and 7.4 MMT, respectively.

India’s national cattle herd inventory in marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) is forecast marginally higher at 307.4 million head. India’s MY 2023 production of carabeef (meat derived from the Asian domestic water buffalo) and beef is forecast at 4.42 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of two percent from the current year’s estimate on continued restrictive policies on slaughter of bovine animals.

In 2023, chicken meat production in Turkey is estimated to increase 9 percent to 2.68 million metric tons (MMT) due to continuing export demands and slightly higher domestic consumption. In 2023, domestic chicken meat consumption is forecast at 1.7 MMT which is 5 percent higher than 2022 but under sector hopes, mostly due to expected continued high poultry meat prices at retail outlets that are unlikely to change in the lead-up to the 2023 presidential election.

FAS/Canada projects moderate growth in chicken meat production in 2023, following a challenging year in 2022 due to tight supplies of hatching eggs and day-old chicks, and increased avian influenza occurrence.

Post forecasts Mexico’s calf crop at 8.45 million head for 2023. Post forecasts cattle exports for 2023 at 1.2 million head, a slight increase from the 2022 estimate. Post forecasts beef production for 2023 at 2.22 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), almost a two percent increase from 2022.

Strong domestic demand and technological improvements are projected to support continued growth in domestic poultry production, with calendar year (CY) 2023 chicken meat production forecast higher at 4 million metric tons (MMT).

New Zealand is expected to have already reached “peak” cattle numbers, and FAS/Wellington anticipates a very gradual decline in both dairy and beef cow numbers in the near future. One of the major influences on this is New Zealand governmental policy, and in particular regulations regarding livestock exclusion around certain water sources, as well as proposed pricing of agricultural emissions.

Post projects 2023 Argentine chicken meat production at 2.38 million metric tons, up very slightly from 2022 levels, while 2023 exports are projected at 190,000 tons, up 4 percent from 2022. Argentine exporters have gained new export opportunities as a result of trade disruptions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, and these gains are expected to be maintained in the short term.

Many Turkish cattle farmers are struggling to make ends meet because input costs, especially feed, are increasing at a faster pace than farmgate prices for carcass meat and milk. As a result, many farmers are cutting their losses and sending their animals to slaughter earlier than normal. This trend is expected to continue into 2023 as economic conditions in the country remain bleak.

In June 2022, Israel authorized the import of U.S. processed meat products, thus making the United States the first and only country with market access for processed meat products in Israel.