Browse Data and Analysis

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.

Export prices increased one percent due to the strengthening of the Thai baht and strong export demand.

In marketing year 2022/23, wheat production is forecast up more than 50 percent from the previous year on increased acreage and higher yields due to improved soil moisture. Wheat exports are forecast to increase year-over-year on larger domestic supplies. Crop 2022 will be the first sizable crop in four years to compete for rail services with other sectors throughout an entire marketing year. Non-durum and durum wheat are expected to be of high quality, resulting in lower feed-grade wheat supplies.

Saudi Arabia’s barley imports for the first six months of MY 2022/23 (July – Dec. 2022) are estimated at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of six percent compared to the same period last year. Post’s current projection for total barley imports for MY 2022/23 is 4.5 MMT, which is a decrease of four percent compared to the USDA official estimate of 4.7 MMT. Unless the price of barley drastically decreases, Post anticipates demand will remain low throughout MY 2022/23.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

This report provides trade data on Vietnam's monthly rice exports by grade and destination and weekly export quotes for rice by grade.

Export prices decreased 1-2 percent due to further weakening of the Thai baht.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post's forecast for rice harvested area and production remain unchanged at 11.5 million hectares and 35.65 million metric tons (MT), the same as the USDA official forecasts. Post's wheat production forecast in MY 2022/23 also remains unchanged from Post's previous projection.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY 2022/23) harvested area and production will only slightly increase from the previous year due to a recovery from floods and storms, expectation of lower oil prices, and more adoption of technology.