Browse Data and Analysis

Despite lower production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Zambia’s production of its staple crop, corn, will be sufficient to meet domestic demand. Zambia’s corn crop is forecast to decline by 25 percent to 2.7 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/23, after producing a record crop 3.6 MMT in MY 2021/22.

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Producers in Kazakhstan's three main wheat producing regions reported no adverse weather events and precipitation has been generally more than last year, especially through June, although July precipitation in some areas has come in slightly lower.

Rice export prices decreased 1-2 percent as new inquiries for white rice were quiet.

Dry and warm conditions across the EU, combined with a decline in corn plantings, are anticipated to reduce the bloc’s total grain production in MY 2022/23. Nevertheless, EU exports of grains are expected to remain stable and partially replace Black Sea Region origins in international grain markets. EU grain importing Member States will expand their purchases in alternative grain suppliers to make up for the limited access to Ukrainian grain and the shorter domestic availability.

Competition by other crops continues to force Spain’s fodder area down. In MY 2022/23 the dry spring is anticipated to have negatively affected yields in non-irrigated land. On the processor side, energy prices will keep forcing margins down.

On July 26, 2022 the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) opened a consultation on proposed guidance for registration requirements of gut modifier products under the animal feeds regulations. The consultation will remain open until September 19, 2022.

The wheat and barley harvest is continuing in Turkey, approximately two weeks behind the normal harvest schedule this year. Wheat production is forecast at 17.25 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and barley production is forecast at 7.4 MMT in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23. The first corn crop planting finished with total corn production forecast at 6.2 MMT.

On July 13, 2022, the Government of Vietnam (GVN) issued Decree 46/2022 amending Decree 13/2020 Guiding the Law on Animal Husbandry, which repeals Article 18.3.c of Decree 13/2020. With this amendment, the GVN no longer requires a Certificate Free Sale (CFS) for imported feed ingredients, including traditional feeds such as corn, soybean meal, DDGS, and single feed ingredients like vitamins, amino acids, and minerals, as part of the registration process for import inspection.

Australia is expected to produce a third consecutive big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another broadly favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting and the early growth phase across most production regions bodes well for wheat and barley production in MY 2022/23.

Significant rainfall has alleviated severe drought conditions in large regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan but more is required to support wheat growth. Large regions of Manitoba that were waterlogged in June, now have adequate conditions after a heat wave dried up excess water.

Wheat imports for 2021/22 are revised upward to 11.2 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 11.0 MMT, reflecting recovering demand for flour-based foods. In line with increased imports, food, seed, and industry (FSI) wheat consumption is also revised up 2.2 percent to 9.1 MMT of wheat equivalent.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Barley exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 3.7 million tons, the same as in MY 2021-2022.