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FAS/Tokyo projects that in 2024 as well as 2025 Japan’s annual poultry production will expand to meet strong demand for domestically produced chicken.

Uruguayan beef exports in 2025 are forecast to remain unchanged at 475,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe). The final volume will depend on how active Chinese buyers are the remainder of the year and FOB prices. Exports to the United States are projected to remain high.

Brazil is the third-largest cattle producer and second-largest beef exporter in the world. Post forecasts decreased slaughter in 2025, due to the forecasted start of the reversion of the cattle cycle. Producers are likely to start retaining cattle in 2025, driving calf prices upwards.

On August 21, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) announced that it had initiated an anti-subsidy (i.e., countervailing duty or CVD) investigation on imports of certain dairy products originating from the European Union.

After a 2023 outbreak, and the authorization of three types of vaccines, a new Bluetongue disease outbreak occurred again in the Netherlands in the summer of 2024. The disease is also spreading to neighboring countries Belgium and Germany.

On August 13, the Hong Kong Centre for Food Safety (CFS) confirmed to ATO Hong Kong that effective February 14, 2025, the Special Autonomous Region (SAR) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will transition from a “systems-based” approach to recognizing foreign meat and poultry establishments to an “establishment or plant-based” registration system.

As of May 15, 2024, Turkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry announced a ban on the importation of live cattle from the United States following confirmed Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) cases in some U.S. lactating dairy cows.

Colombia’s raw milk production has remained steady in the last decade, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. The sector is still largely informal, with a 47 percent collection rate in 2023 from producers into the formal market.

Ukrainian chicken meat production recovered in 2024 and is expected to continue its slow recovery in 2025, with total production still below the pre-full-scale invasion level. Ukraine’s largest producer, MHP SE, reports stable production at full capacity.

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

FAS Manila forecasts 2025 beef/carabeef and pork imports at 226,000 and 510,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent, respectively. Strong economic growth, moderating inflation, and forecast population increases support higher meat imports in 2025.

Post’s 2025 forecast for China’s chicken meat production and consumption are up slightly from 2024. Post forecasts chicken imports to decline in 2025 due to increased domestic production and constraints on major supplying countries.