Browse Data and Analysis

Rice export prices decreased one percent due to the weakening of the Thai baht.

EU’s total grain production for MY 2022/23 is anticipated to amount to 286 MMT, down from the 293 MMT registered the previous season. The favorable growing conditions across the EU are not anticipated to counter the reduction expected in area planted to grains.

Rice production in Senegal, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali is forecast at 8.02 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/23 on average weather, improved irrigation, and enhanced stability in production areas. The 15 percent jump from MY 2021/22 follows a growing season that was plagued by poor weather, militant activity and instability in Mali, and irrigation issues and pest prevalence in Senegal.

Australia is expected to produce another big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. Another favorable set of conditions around the time of winter grain planting across most production regions of Australia bodes well for another big planted area of wheat and barley for MY 2022/23.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

Wheat production in Ethiopia for 2022/23 projected at a record level of 5.7 million MT while corn forecasted to 10.2 million MT. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has identified top priorities that can increase production and productivity of cereals through small and large-scale irrigation development, financing agricultural inputs, encouraging cluster farming, and reducing post-harvest loss.

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Kazakhstan introduced wheat and wheat flour exports restrictions until June 15, 2022, however the government has made public assurances that it plans to supply regional markets given high wheat prices and production challenges in Ukraine and Russia.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) chart by region as of March 10, 2022, shows a normal vegetation index on the Mediterranean coast and a below normal NDVI in the high lands. The Algerian government again increased domestic procurement prices of grains from farmers to encourage production and grain collection.

Saudi Arabian barley imports totaled approximately 2.63 million metric tons (MMT) during the eight months of the marketing year (MY) 2021/2022, which is a decrease of approximately 41 percent compared to the same time period last year.

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice and corn exports larger in MY 2022/23 due to strong demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries. Post forecasts Burma’s wheat imports down in MY 2022/23 due to low domestic demand, restrictions on buying of foreign currency, and changing import policies.

Post forecasts overall feed demand to grow in calendar years 2022/23 on par with local livestock and aquaculture production growth. Post forecasts marketing year 2022/2023 (MY 2022/23) wheat imports to decline to 3.90 million metric tons (MMT) due to the war in Ukraine causing high costs and reduced supply of wheat.

Milled rice production for MY 2022/23 is projected at 1 MMT, this is unchanged from the MY 2021/22. Post projects MY 2022/23 imports at 1.25 MMT, a 3.8 percent decrease from MY 2021/22. Overall stock levels are reported to be high in order absorb any short-term supply disruptions.