Browse Data and Analysis

Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down to 25.5 million metric tons (MMT) on restrictive export policies and weaker global demand. The soybean subsidy program launched in April 2022 unexpectedly caused several importers to slowdown purchases. Feed mill demand for soybean meal continues to drive imports from South American origins.

In 2022, Indonesia maintained its biodiesel blending mandate at 30 percent and raised its biodiesel allocation volume to a record 10.1 billion liters on expected increased economic activity and mobility following eased pandemic-related restrictions. The export levy that funds the subsidies underwriting the biodiesel mandate program was adjusted to also subsidize cooking oil prices which have surged since late 2021.

Wheat imports for 2021/22 are revised upward to 11.2 million metric tons (MMT) from the previous estimate of 11.0 MMT, reflecting recovering demand for flour-based foods. In line with increased imports, food, seed, and industry (FSI) wheat consumption is also revised up 2.2 percent to 9.1 MMT of wheat equivalent.

In 2021, the total value of all food and beverage retail sales in Indonesia totaled $72 billion, a 12 percent decrease from the previous year due to COVID-19 pandemic social distancing measures. Traditional markets still dominate the retail food and beverage sector, accounting for 76 percent of market share, although they continue to lose market share to modern retail stores and e-commerce.

Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, was the 11th largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in 2021 valued at $24.5 billion. Indonesia is party to 14 Free Trade Agreements (FTA), creating tough competition for U.S. agricultural exports. Indonesia’s major FTA partners (i.e., Australia, New Zealand, China, etc.) also benefit from proximity.

Indonesia’s 2022/23 coffee production is forecast to increase by 7 percent from the previous year to 11.35 million (60 kilogram) bags on favorable weather in southern Sumatra. Improved demand following the easing of pandemic-related restrictions is expected to raise domestic coffee consumption to 4.8 million bags in 2022/23.

Private sugar mill expansion and higher rainfall as a result of La Nina weather patterns are expected to increase sugarcane yields, leading to increased sugar production in 2022/23. Despite the expected increase in production, imports of raw sugar are also forecast to increase, mainly due to higher sugar demand from the growing food and beverage industry.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

Declining cases of COVID-19 globally and domestically are expected to increase overall demand for textile and textile products. Therefore, following an 8.2 percent decline in 2020/21, cotton imports are expected rebound by 12.7 percent to 2.6 million bales in 2021/22.

The Indonesian Agricultural Quarantine Agency (IAQA) has updated the Fresh Food of Plant Origin (FFPO) requirements under its Prior Notice system. This report details the updated requirements, which will enter into force on May 10, 2022.

Indonesia currently imports 60 percent of the raw materials needed for its growing food processing industry. In 2021, exports of U.S. agricultural products to Indonesia increased by nine percent largely due to higher demand for soybean, beef, and corn.

High global commodity prices are expected to slow the growth of 2021/22 Indonesian wheat imports and lower the use of wheat in feed formulation.