Browse Data and Analysis

Despite increased area, oilseed production in marketing year 2022/23 is forecast to show only a small increase due to lower average yields than in the previous marketing year. Like in other sectors, the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly impacts the oilseeds market.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area at a slower pace, to 42.5 million hectares (ha) in 2022/23, up from the estimated 40.7 mn ha planted in the 2021/22 season. Post forecasts 2022/23 soybean production at 139 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 124.8 MMT harvest this season, assuming return to normal weather conditions.

On March 31, 2022, the European Commission (EC) approved three genetically engineered (GE) crops (1 soybean, 1 rapeseed, and 1 cotton) and renewed the authorization for 1 cotton crop for food and feed imports. The three authorizations and one renewal were published in the European Union’s Official Journal on April 4 and 7, 2022, and they remain valid for 10 years.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23 Post projects continued expansion of soybean planted acreage to 1.225 million hectares (HA) and production of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT).

Canola ending stocks are forecast to close marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at just 15 percent of the five-year average, driven by reduced yield due to drought and strong global demand for oilseeds. Assuming a return to average yields, canola exports are forecast to nearly double in MY 2022/23, driven by strong global demand for oilseeds and a rebuilding of exportable supplies.

Marketing year 2020/21 was another record year for U.S.-origin soybean exports to Egypt. The United States, with 2.53 MMT in exports, was Egypt’s largest supplier of soybeans. Egypt’s soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) are forecast at 4.0 million metric tons (MMT), up 400,000 MT from the MY 2021/22 estimate.

A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher.

The Philippines is the largest market for U.S. soybean meal (SBM) and a top coconut oil exporter. The country is also a major palm oil market for neighboring ASEAN countries. The loosening of COVID-related restrictions and the corresponding economic rebound are expected to support greater demand for soybean meal.

South Africa experienced an upward trend in oilseed production (soybeans and sunflower seeds) driven largely by rising oilseed prices, higher yielding cultivars, and a local demand-pull from investments in new oilseed processing plants.

Taiwan’s soybean imports are projected to reach 2.63 and 2.65 MMT in MY2021/22 and MY 2022/23. Soybean import demand will be buoyed by steady feed demand as well as exports and demand for soybean oil. In MY 2020/21, Taiwan’s COVID-19 control restrictions in Q2-Q3 had some negative impact on demand from the HRI sector, especially for soybean oil and palm oil which are favored in commercial use.

Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 soybean imports are expected to increase 5 percent from a slow import growth in MY2021/22, driven by the recovery in hotel and food service sector. Palm oil production in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 is expected to continue the upward trend.