Browse Data and Analysis

India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is expected to extend its momentum and reach 42.1 million metric tons (MMT), a one percent increase over the MY 2021/22 crop. Both rising animal feed demand and the anticipated growth in oilseed supply will further increase oil meal production by two percent to 20.7 million metric tons.

In MY 2021/22, profit margins of Japanese soybean crushing surpassed those of canola crushing. Meanwhile, as hotel, restaurant, and institutional service industries (HRI) began to recover from the effects of the COVID pandemic, demand for soybean oil spiked as canola oil demand dropped with less home cooking than during the peak crisis period.

Australian oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to be strong again in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, after big crops in MY 2021/22. Canola production is forecast in MY 2022/23 at 4.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from the record-busting crop estimated at 6.35 MMT in MY 2021/22, but if realized would still be the second largest crop in history.

FAS/Managua expects 2022 peanut and oil production to remain flat from the previous year, with the vast majority of peanuts and virtually all peanut oil exported overseas.

After more than three years of legislative effort, Costa Rica has legalized hemp production and commercialization as well as cannabis for medicinal and therapeutic purposes. The Government’s commitment to publish implementing regulations – including those related to import and export of value-added products – by May 8, appears unlikely to be reached.

Edible oil prices have been trending higher and are now increasingly volatile due to poor market transparency and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Post forecasts MY 2022/2023 soybean imports up to 2.8 million MT, while local soybean production remains flat.

On March 17, the Serbian Government added refined sunflower edible oil to the list of grains and oilseeds that cannot be exported because of their importance to food security. In the same amendment the Serbian Government removed raw sunflower seed oil from the list that is now free for export.

Indonesia palm oil production is expected to reach 46 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022/23 on favorable weather and higher producer profit margins. Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down from the previous update due to the Government of Indonesia’s domestic market obligation (DMO) requirement, which increased to 30 percent from 20 percent.

Due to the poultry industry’s slow recovery and sluggish consumer demand for edible oils, no significant growth in oilseed and edible oil use is forecast for 2022/23. Likewise, soybean, canola, and palm oil imports in 2022/23 are forecast to remain similar to 2021/22 levels.

Fishmeal exports reached a surprising 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2021, the highest amount in ten years. However, production and exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 910,000 and 896,000 metric tons, respectively.

On March 2, 2022, the Supreme People's Court of China issued "Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening the Criminal Trial Work Involving Seeds" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). The Opinions clarify the general requirements for strengthening seed-related criminal trials, the application of law to seed-related crimes, and improvement of relevant enforcement mechanisms.

Tunisian MY 2022/23 soybean imports are expected to reach 560,000 MT, compared to 555,000 MT in MY 2021/22. Tunisian olive oil exports are forecast to reach 135,000 MT in MY 2022/23, compared to 200,000 MT in MY 2021/22.