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The ongoing revival of South Korea’s food service sector strengthened consumer demand for beef and pork in 2022. This positive trend is expected to continue in 2023 as Korea’s hotel, restaurant, and institutional sectors gain momentum in a post-covid market.

The United States is the world’s largest producer of beef and its second-largest importer. Imports mostly consist of lean trimmings used for processing into ground beef. These trimmings, which would otherwise go toward rendering or pet food, add value to the U.S. beef supply chain.

In 2022, the Egyptian government announced that feed costs increased by 40 to 45 percent. Beef prices also increased by 15 to 20 percent, discouraging per capita consumption. Prices are expected to continue increasing in response to the ongoing devaluation of the Egyptian pound and complex import procedures. Imports of Indian water buffalo increased to reach 150 thousand MT, while Brazilian beef imports are still limited.

Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

Taiwan is the seventh-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports. Taiwan has vibrant urban communities and a highly developed e-commerce industry that provides convenience for customers, all which support Taiwan’s continued demand for safe and high-quality food products. In addition, evolving consumption trends suggest customers are increasingly looking for western-style food options that cannot be locally sourced. Since domestic food production alone cannot match increased food demand, agricultural imports will continue to play an important role in Taiwan’s retail food economy. While trade barriers exist and competition intensifies, opportunities to increase U.S. agricultural exports remain promising.

Both cattle and swine numbers are expected to decrease significantly in 2022, driven by the war-related economic downturn. Pork production is expected to show a decrease, while 2022 beef production is expected to show a short-term spike. Production of both proteins is expected to drop in 2023.

FAS/Tokyo projects 2023 cattle stocks to expand to 3.995 million metric tons (MT) following increased production in 2021 and 2022. In the dairy sector, cow slaughter continues to increase in 2022 to adjust for excess capacity and overproduction of milk. FAS/Tokyo forecasts 2023 beef production to remain flat from 2022 at 490,000 MT.

Further contraction in the Canadian herd is forecast in 2023 driven by lingering impacts from the 2021 drought. A smaller cow herd will result in a reduced calf crop and lower beef production compared to 2022.

Total meat consumption in Venezuela has declined 68.9 percent since 2013 as a result of the economic collapse. However, a better economic environment since 2019 has led to a stabilization of beef production and significant growth in chicken production. In 2022, beef production is forecast to grow 5 percent from 2021 to 287,803 MT.

Paraguayan beef exports in 2023 are forecast to decline to 390,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, the second drop in a row thanks to declining cattle production. The country is suffering from the third consecutive year of La Niña conditions, which leads to dry weather in most regions.

Forced by record high feed and energy prices and tightening environmental restrictions, EU cattle and swine farmers are scaling back production. High carcass prices have encouraged cattle farmers to advance the slaughter of their herds, but lower slaughter weights will put pressure on overall beef production this year.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the percentage of exported agricultural production for 25 top commodities.