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Post forecasts 2022/23 cotton area planted at 1.65 million hectares (ha), an increase of just over one percent from the 1.63 million ha cotton area estimate for 2021/22. Post’s forecast is based on expectations that despite challenges, such as risings costs and tightening margins, Brazilian producers are optimistic about the crop’s prospects, and eager to continue growing the sector.

For Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (August to July) harvested area for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Senegal is forecast to increase eight percent to 1.44 million hectares (MHA) compared to the previous year. This increase is largely due to significant...

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the percentage of exported agricultural production for 25 top commodities.

This GAIN-INDIA report corrects the India Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) table in GAIN-INDIA | IN2022-0076 | Cotton and Products Update – First Update 2022/2023. While the text of the report correctly states the forecasts, the PSD table erroneously lists the years as 2019/2020, 2020/2021, and 2021/2022.

FAS Mumbai (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton production at 27.7 million 480 lb. bales on an area of 12.8 million hectares. The current sowing progress indicates that farmers are preferring to plant higher cotton area due to prevailing high market prices. Indian yields are expected to improve by three percent due to above normal rains in major cotton growing regions.

Post forecasts cotton imports from the United States to grow by 10 percent in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Post forecast for MY 2022/23 production will increase by nearly 19 percent from previous year. Mexico's textile industry continues to respond to strong demand for yarn and fabric, particularly in the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) region, for final product export to the Untied States.

Attractive cotton prices, good yields, and favorable weather conditions spurred Turkish farmers to plant more cotton earlier this spring. Owing to a larger than expected increase in cotton plantings, production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast higher at 950,000 metric tons (MT).

U.S. exporters can find ample opportunities in the Iberian Peninsula. Spain is the third-largest European Union (EU) destination for U.S. agricultural products, with Portugal ranking 11th. In 2021, the United States exported $1.6 billion of agricultural products to Spain, or 15 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports to the EU. The United States held a 4 percent market share of Spain’s agricultural imports and 2 percent market share in Portugal, behind other EU member states as a group and Brazil.

The 2022/23 harvested area estimate is reduced significantly due to the recent flooding in key production areas of Sindh and southern Punjab. As a result, the 2022/23 production forecast is lowered 19.4 percent to 5 million bales. To replace the expected decline in domestic output, the 2022/23 import forecast is increased to 5.8 million bales.

Estimated cotton imports for marketing year (MY) 22/23 are reduced to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) on high carry-in stocks and higher domestic production. MY 22/23 production is increased to 6 MMT on higher yields in Xinjiang. China’s slowing economy and weak domestic demand reduced cotton use in MY 21/22 to 8 MMT and lowered imports to 1.76 MMT.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the growth in exports of several key bulk agricultural commodities since 1989.

Post forecasts consumption of cotton in the Malaysian textile industry at 290,000 bales in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, a 3.3 percent drop from the previous year post’s estimate. The expected reduction is based on textile companies shifting their operation to other South-East Asian countries as the cost of labor increased in Malaysia with the revision of new minimum wages on April 1, 2022.